It’s not trading with your real-life friends and family, because you’re not going to beat them.”
“The most money is in trading the short-term, short-term contracts like soybean futures. The risk there is low for an initial investment. It’s a very low-yielding asset. The upside potential is much lower. It’s not for buying big money.
“Then you have the other way around. The other thing in doing this is that you put in a lot of work. You’re spending your time to understand the market and to find ways to beat it and it’s not just about trading these futures contracts. It’s about understanding the markets.
“You’re just going to buy one contract and lose the money. But if you understand which types of contract are likely to produce the highest profits, then you can take out a small amount of money. The risk is much lower.
“This is actually a very low risk game. You only need to know what the futures are worth and how much they’re likely to go up. And what they’re likely to do if you trade them on. Then you can take a small amount of money off the table to buy a stock.” (See “Investing,” by Bob Tisdale and Gary Schwartz, and this short interview with Gary Schwartz on the financial benefits of futures.)
I don’t see anything wrong with using a futures commission (if you’re a big long-term investor doing something that’s not a long-term investment). But what I think is that all that talk about how long those short-term contracts take and so on is nonsense. They don’t take that long and that’s something I’ve noticed with many traders on the Internet.
It’s only short. It’s not the same as having an agreement. If I’m going to have an agreement with some person to let me borrow money whenever I want, then I’m likely going to do that. I’m not going to let somebody borrow my money for a year when they ask me to do it forever if there’s a chance they can do better.
When I was a kid I used to have a friend from college who said, “Okay, come to the bar tomorrow and I’ll lend you 10 percent for lunch,” or something like that. He’d pay me back in two days. And I always loved it when they’d do that. It was so easy.
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